The Grinch Stole The Santa Claus Rally, But The Month Of January Is The Key To The Year

A correction began in December, as the market had gotten very overbought after rallying nearly 25%. So, the Santa Claus Rally (last 5 trading days of December and the first 2 trading days of January) never materialized. But this is not a bad omen. Historically, when the Santa rally does not happen the equity market still rallies in the new year (on average) nearly 6%.

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Year Ahead Outlook

As we enter the holiday swing and closing out another year, we find ourselves with back-to-back years of 20%+ returns in the S&P 500. This has happened five times in history and in every instance the first half of the next year was positive, but four out of the five years the second half was negative.

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