S&P 500 Has A Short-Term Buy Signal

Market Commentary – March 24, 2025

We have been writing about the oversold condition of the equity market and expected a bottom after a 10% correction. We believe we are there. Most markets don’t bounce back in what is called a “V bottom” – a steep decline followed by a steep recovery. Markets often move sideways and retest recent lows—a process that can take up to a month. We expect choppy, somewhat volatile trading in the near term. Still, we believe current levels offer attractive entry points for long-term equity investors. We maintain that Technology and Tech-related are the leaders in this market.

Are Yields Positioned To Fall? Possibly

The 10-Year Treasury yield appears to have what is called in technical analysis a “head-and-shoulders top”. A break of the support line, called the neckline, would indicate the yield can fall, targeting 3.6%-3.5%. When the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data is released on Friday, if the data comes in better than expected, watch yields very closely. If yields don’t move on the inflation news, the next big event could be Reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2nd, targeting countries with higher trade barriers against U.S. exports.