Shoppers Are Keeping The Holidays Merry

Market Commentary – December 1, 2025

The National Retail Federation is expecting a merry holiday shopping season with a total spend during the Thanksgiving weekend – including Black Friday and Cyber Monday – to bring in over $1 Trillion.

That’s up 3.7%-4.2% from last year. Consumers are helping to keep the holidays bright! As we have been reporting, the consumer has the disposable income and savings to spend – and holiday gifts top the shopping list! There is softness in the job market but having an unemployment rate below 5% still paints a strong employment backdrop.

Will The Fed Keep The Markets Feeling Merry?

There’s been plenty of volatility around the next interest rate move by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Will we see a 25-basis-point cut or not? Markets have swung back and forth on every new comment from Fed officials, and the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) itself appears divided. Markets are currently pricing in an 83% probability of a 25-bp cut, putting the Fed in a tough spot since it generally prefers not to surprise investors.

The next Fed meeting is on December 9-10, and, in our opinion, it will be hard for the Fed to not cut rates. What could be the outcome is a 25-bp cut with hawkish comments about future rate cuts. The Fed has been data dependent, but it still doesn’t have all the data it likes to have. The employment data that has come out is still pointing to a softening labor market, so the Fed does have a rationale to justify a rate cut. Stay tuned.