Perspectives - July 14, 2025
Mid Year Outlook
Buoyed by equity markets hitting record highs, we entered 2025 with strong optimism – but this outlook was quickly upended by the unexpected tariffs from the Trump Administration followed by a sudden escalation of war in the Middle East, which drew in the United States. The tariff battle led to a bear market sell-off of 20%, and the bombing of Iran by Israel and the U.S. saw oil prices rise sharply. But stocks quickly recovered, and oil fell just as sharply within days. It felt like we were in a warp drive of events. We also had a significant drop in inflation with interest rates trending down. So, as we enter the second half of 2025, equity markets are at new highs, interest rates continue to fall, the Middle East war has possibly turned to peace, and tariffs still need negotiations.
Market Commentary - July 14, 2025
Chart Book June 2025
The U.S. economy contracted by 0.5% in Q1 2025, a sharper decline than the earlier estimate of 0.2%, largely due to President Trump's trade tariffs disrupting business activity. A rush to import goods before tariffs took effect caused imports to surge 37.9%, subtracting nearly 4.7% from GDP. This marks the first economic contraction in three years, following 2.4% growth in Q4 2024. Consumer spending also slowed drastically, growing just 0.5%, compared to 4% in the previous quarter. A key measure of underlying economic strength—which excludes volatile components like exports and government spending—rose only 1.9%, down from 2.9% in Q4. Federal government spending fell 4.6%, its largest drop since 2022. Overall, the data reflects how tariff-driven trade disruptions and consumer anxiety are weighing on U.S. economic activity.
Market Commentary - July 14, 2025
Summer Brings New Record High
As we move deeper into the summer and the long lingering uncertainty of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” is now behind us, stocks have been charging to new highs on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. And though the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has not yet hit its own new highs, we expect it will. Breadth and volume are confirming the ongoing rally, giving us confidence that the secular bull market is alive and well. We expect there will be more volatility as President Trump continues to negotiate more waves of tariffs. Plus, with the valuation of the S&P 500 at the upper end, investors are nervous.
Market Commentary - July 7, 2025
Stocks Spark to Record Highs Amid Market Fireworks
We have been bullish while expecting a pullback – but the stock price momentum has been so strong that a correction has not materialized. In fact, the Cumulative Advance-Decline lines for both the NYSE and S&P 500 have hit record all-time highs, confirming the Bull is charging across the full breadth of the market.
Market Commentary - June 30, 2025
Explosive Tariffs Give Way To The Market Fireworks Of New Record Highs
What A Year So Far – From Bear To Bull In 2 Months. The year started off strong, but the tariffs announced on April 2 proved worse than expected, so stocks corrected some 20%, sending the market into Bear territory – only to bottom and rally 27% – reaching record highs in just 2 months’ time. This is one of the fastest declines/recoveries in the history of the equity market. No wonder investors have been nervous. The volatility in 2025 has been extraordinary. But, as we always advise, investors need to be patient.
Perspectives - June 16, 2025
The Corner June 2025
The S&P 500 is on track for a summer rally, targeting 7200 in 12 months and 12000–13000 by 2029–2030, driven by robust economic growth, consumer resilience, and transformative technologies. Despite short-term choppiness from overbought conditions and tariff noise, we remain in a secular bull market. Meaning, history suggests there’s still room to run. AI, blockchain, and robotics are fueling productivity gains, mirroring the impact of cell phones and the internet when those once-emerging technologies took the world (and markets) by storm.