As Goes January, So Goes The Year

Market Commentary – February 2, 2026

Despite all the geopolitical events that happened in January, the S&P 500 closed higher for the month, up1.4%

There is an old adage on Wall Street that says, “As goes January, so goes the year.” The concept is commonly attributed to the late Yale Hirsch, who first identified and documented the phenomenon in the 1972 Stock Trader’s Almanac. So, the S&P 500’s positive return for January points to the full year closing in the green. On average, the market closes up 12% when the month of January is up. We are expecting the S&P 500 to reach 7500 by the end of this year.

New Fed Chair Is Finally Announced 100 Days Before Chair Powell Steps Down

Last Friday, President Trump announced his pick for the new Chair of the Federal Reserve (Fed) exactly 100 days before current Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to step down. Trump’s choice of Kevin Warsh took markets by surprise. Warsh is viewed as being a hawk (i.e., an advocate for tighter monetary policy), and in response to the announcement, the 10-year Treasury pushed higher, and the U.S. dollar strengthened. But the biggest reaction happened in the commodity markets where Gold and Silver had one the sharpest selloffs in history. At one point, Silver was down 30% and closed nearly 26% lower. Gold closed down 8%. Both of these assets were over-owned on leverage. We do not believe the bull run is over in the precious metals.

Gold In A Correction: Support Near $4500-$4400

Gold remains one of the best performing assets year-to-date, up 13% even after a sharp correction. Excessive buying – and with leverage – is now being unwound, but the long-term trend in Gold remains up, in our view. We maintain our newly raised target of $6500 and view this correction as a buying opportunity. Support level range is $4500-$4400.