Market Commentary - September 21, 2026
The Fed Moves The Punch Bowl
This week, investors will focus on purchasing managers’ indexes, jobless claims, new home sales, durable goods, and the first wave of post-rate-hike Federal Reserve commentary. Fed Chair Warsh is not scheduled to speak, making other Fed officials’ appearances more important, though their comments may be less definitive. The market question is whether officials validate expectations for more tightening or push back against them. Thursday’s scheduled meeting between President Trump and China’s General Secretary Xi Jinping adds another source of uncertainty, with trade, technology, critical minerals, energy, Iran, and Taiwan among the issues in focus. With oil supply already strained, the meeting could add to market volatility. We remain bullish on the secular equity story, but higher oil prices, higher yields, and geopolitical risk argue for patience. We continue to expect elevated volatility, but investors should remain fearless.
Market Commentary - September 14, 2026
Markets Test Higher Oil, Higher Rates, And Strong AI Demand
The most important event this week is the FOMC announcement on interest rates Wednesday afternoon. The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan hold meetings after the FOMC rate decision. The Bank of England is expected to hold, but the Bank of Japan could raise rates, which should lift the yen and squeeze dollar-funded trades. Housing starts are reported on Thursday, industrial production on Friday. Quarterly options and futures expiration will also take place Friday, an event often called “triple witching,” which can create volatility and generate much higher-than-normal trading volume.
Market Commentary - September 8, 2026
Riding The Rapids Of The Markets
The Labor Day holiday makes this a shortened week, but an important one for economic data. The Producer Price Index (PPI) and, more importantly, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be closely watched for what they signal about the Fed’s interest rate decision later this month. On the earnings front, Oracle (ORCL) and Adobe (ADBE) report Thursday and could generate headlines. With markets continuing to adjust to changing expectations for inflation and interest rates, navigating the rapids could remain challenging — especially for fixed income investors.
Market Commentary - July 21, 2026
Mid Year Outlook – The Bull Keeps Bucking: Remain Fearless
The first half of 2026 tested investors at every turn. A war with Iran temporarily closed the Strait of Hormuz, sending crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and average U.S. gasoline prices above $4.00 a gallon. Yet despite those shocks, the U.S. economy continues to expand above its long-term trend, with growth estimated at 2.2%–2.5% versus a trend rate of roughly 2.1%. Even more remarkable was the stock market’s resilience. The S&P 500 gained 15% during the second quarter — the strongest 2Q performance in a mid-term election year and the index’s best quarterly return since a 36% surge in 1936. It also ranked as the 12th-best quarter since 1950. For the first half of the year, the S&P 500 was up nearly 10%, already exceeding its long term average annual return of roughly 7.0%.