Market Commentary - November 9, 2026
Tech And Semiconductors Lead A Midterm Style Correction
This week’s earnings reports will offer further insight into how inflation, oil prices and AI are affecting companies. Wednesday is Veterans Day. Banks and bond markets will be closed, but equity markets will remain open. October CPI, including headline and core readings, will be released Tuesday and could shape expectations for the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Existing home sales are due Thursday, followed by October Producer Price Index (PPI) data on Friday. Earnings reports continue this week. Constellation Energy (CEG), Rocket Lab (RKLB) and Take-Two Interactive (TTWO), the video game publisher behind Grand Theft Auto, report today. CoreWeave (CRWV) reports after the close Tuesday. On Thursday, Applied Materials (AMAT) and Cisco Systems (CSCO) may offer insight into trends in AI infrastructure, networking and semiconductor capital spending.
Market Commentary - November 2, 2026
Firm Fed Positioning, Rotation Toward Defensive Positions, And Hacking Crypto
Mid-Term Elections, October Labor Figures, And More Earnings This Week Mid-term elections for the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate are tomorrow. All eyes on the results — but the final tally may take days to weeks to months before everything is confirmed. On Friday this week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will report employment figures for October. As we write this over the weekend, Bloomberg’s survey of Wall Street economists projects a rise of 65,000 in nonfarm payrolls, and no change in the unemployment rate at 4.2%. There are quite a lot of earnings reports due this week that can continue to impact the market. Among them, Apple (AAPL) reports earnings after the close today, along with Palantir (PLTR). Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) and cloud provider Arista Networks Inc. (ANET) report Tuesday afternoon, following Amgen’s (AMGN) report tomorrow morning along with Pfizer Inc (PFE). McDonald’s (MCD) reports Wednesday morning, and Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM) reports that afternoon. Cisco (CSCO) and Applied Materials (AMAT) report Thursday morning along with ConocoPhillips (COP).
Market Commentary - October 26, 2026
AI Spending Doubts And Rising Oil Cool The Rally
This week, central banks might set the tone, but earnings across Tech and Energy will make the noise. Earnings season heats up this week with Big Tech names: Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN) and Intel (INTC) all set to report. Wednesday’s Fed decision and Thursday’s PCE inflation report will also command attention, alongside developments in the Iran conflict and their impact on oil and diesel prices. Other central banks add to a busy calendar. The European Central Bank (ECB) announces its rate decision Thursday, with policymakers signaling that persistent inflation could require further tightening. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) concludes its policy meeting Friday in Japan. Energy earnings will provide a closer look at how higher oil prices and wartime disruptions are affecting profits and operations. ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Shell (SHEL), BP (BP) and TotalEnergies (TTE) report Q3 results. Energy is projected to post the strongest earnings growth this quarter — up more than 100% year-over-year.
Market Commentary - October 22, 2026
The Corner October 2026
The S&P 500 remains in a secular bull market. Strong earnings growth, continued upward earnings estimate revisions, and reasonable valuations make us comfortable with our S&P 500 year-end target at 8,225. Over the coming years, we still see the index reaching a secular peak near 10,000–13,000. Information Technology remains the secular market leadership, with Semiconductors the industry leader within the sector. The Federal Reserve has begun a tightening cycle and it historically takes several interest rate hikes by the Fed to disrupt a bull market rally. There is an old Wall Street adage: “three steps and a stumble,” meaning it takes three interest rate hikes to cause a correction in stocks. It matches an observation of investor Sir John Templeton: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” The market may be mature, but we don’t believe we have reached euphoria. Near term, we continue to expect volatility, driven primarily by the unresolved conflict with Iran and the uncertainty typical of a mid-term election year. October has historically been a month when major market bottoms form, often setting the stage for a year-end rally. We remain buyers of this market and continue to expect stocks to move higher into year-end. We do not expect higher Fed interest rates to significantly weaken the economy or consumer spending this year, although that risk could become more meaningful as we enter 2027.
Market Commentary - October 19, 2026
Treasury Yields Pull Back As Semiconductors Seek A Bottom
Earnings and economic data will drive the market this week, led by major reports from Meta (META) and Tesla (TSLA) on Wednesday. Investors will be watching Meta closely for commentary on AI capital spending and the adoption of Muse, its new AI agent, which appears to be a key element of the company’s turnaround. Airline earnings will also be in focus, particularly comments on jet fuel costs and consumers’ willingness to pay higher ticket prices. Procter & Gamble (PG), a Consumer Staples bellwether, reports Thursday, providing another window into consumer spending. The economic calendar is also busy. On Tuesday, the Census Bureau will report Housing Starts and Building Permits, while the National Association of Realtors will report Pending Home Sales. On Friday, S&P Global will release its U.S. Manufacturing and Services PMIs, followed by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Meanwhile, the FOMC blackout period began Saturday ahead of its October 27–28 meeting, leaving investors without any new guidance from Fed officials this week. No rate hike is expected at the meeting, with Bloomberg putting the probability of the Fed holding rates steady at 85%. 10