Market Commentary - October 5, 2026
September Better Than History – Entering October With Tech Breakout
October Starting On Good Footing – Not Too Spooky… Yet Last week was packed with economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials. This week brings fewer of both. The biggest item should be the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from its September 16 meeting, when it voted to raise interest rates. Traders and investors will scrutinize the minutes for insight into why some FOMC members dissented from the rate hike, the Committee’s view on the long end of the Treasury curve, and whether there is any support for Fed Governor Cook’s position that the AI infrastructure buildout has “surprisingly persistent” inflation effects. A dovish surprise could lower Treasury yields and provide another boost to equities. On the data side, we’ll see S&P Global services and composite purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) today, along with the ISM services index. The August trade balance arrives Tuesday, followed on Friday by the University of Michigan’s preliminary reading on consumer sentiment.
Market Commentary - September 28, 2026
Higher Interest Rates And Oil Prices Are Not Having A Big Impact On Stocks
This week could be jumpy with a barrage of data and month-end/quarter-end volatility. Investors face a packed economic calendar this week, culminating in Friday's September employment report. Other key releases include consumer confidence, job openings, personal income, PCE inflation, jobless claims, manufacturing data, and factory orders. Micron Technology (MU) reports fiscal fourth-quarter earnings, providing additional insight into semiconductor sector performance. With month-end and quarter-end rebalancing also underway, markets could experience heightened volatility.
Market Commentary - September 21, 2026
The Fed Moves The Punch Bowl
This week, investors will focus on purchasing managers’ indexes, jobless claims, new home sales, durable goods, and the first wave of post-rate-hike Federal Reserve commentary. Fed Chair Warsh is not scheduled to speak, making other Fed officials’ appearances more important, though their comments may be less definitive. The market question is whether officials validate expectations for more tightening or push back against them. Thursday’s scheduled meeting between President Trump and China’s General Secretary Xi Jinping adds another source of uncertainty, with trade, technology, critical minerals, energy, Iran, and Taiwan among the issues in focus. With oil supply already strained, the meeting could add to market volatility. We remain bullish on the secular equity story, but higher oil prices, higher yields, and geopolitical risk argue for patience. We continue to expect elevated volatility, but investors should remain fearless.
Market Commentary - September 14, 2026
Markets Test Higher Oil, Higher Rates, And Strong AI Demand
The most important event this week is the FOMC announcement on interest rates Wednesday afternoon. The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan hold meetings after the FOMC rate decision. The Bank of England is expected to hold, but the Bank of Japan could raise rates, which should lift the yen and squeeze dollar-funded trades. Housing starts are reported on Thursday, industrial production on Friday. Quarterly options and futures expiration will also take place Friday, an event often called “triple witching,” which can create volatility and generate much higher-than-normal trading volume.