Perspectives - February 18, 2026
The Corner February 2026
The equity market has started the year experiencing high volatility. It feels like a whole year’s worth of events compressed into just a month and a half. We expect this heightened volatility to persist through a good portion of 2026, which is seen as the norm for mid-term election years. Why? Because historically mid-term election years have been the most turbulent phase of the presidential cycle, with average drawdowns (corrections) of 19%. But it’s important to note that the rallies that occurred off of the lows of those corrections were very strong, gaining an average of 31% one year later.
Market Commentary - February 17, 2026
Jobs Report Delivers A Positive Employment Backdrop
Private payrolls rose by 172,000, also significantly exceeding expectations. The unemployment rate fell from 4.4% to 4.3%. This was a strong, positive report. On the government side, jobs declined by 42,000 overall, with federal government jobs down 34,000, state jobs down 18,000, and local jobs up 10,000. The report also included the annual benchmark revision, which lowered prior-year employment estimates. March 2025 was revised downward by about 862,000 on a not seasonally adjusted basis, while seasonally adjusted revisions totaled a loss of roughly 898,000 – indicating that the prior period was weaker than previously reported.
Market Commentary - February 9, 2026
Expect The Theme Of 2026 To Remain Volatility
The equity market has started the year experiencing high volatility, as reflected in the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), which has already reached 20 six times in just six weeks. It feels like a whole year’s worth of events compressed into just a month and a half. We expect this heightened volatility to persist through a good portion of 2026 – which is seen as the norm for mid-term election years. Why? Because historically they have been the most turbulent phase of the presidential cycle, with average drawdowns (corrections) of 19%. But it’s important to note that the rallies that occurred off of the lows of those corrections were very strong – gaining an average of 31% one year later. So far, the S&P 500 is following the historical pattern of a mid-term election year. Investors need to remain fearless and, to weather this volatility, portfolios need to be diversified. We maintain that a secular bull market remains intact, and our year-end forecast for the S&P 500 is 7500.
Market Commentary - February 2, 2026
As Goes January, So Goes The Year
Earnings And Jobs Data To Be The Headliners. This week, we’ll get to digest key economic data, evolving Fed dynamics, and more all-important earnings. This week brings several potential market catalysts. Fourth-quarter earnings continue, while January labor data — including the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), ADP private payrolls, and Friday’s employment report — will shape expectations around economic growth, inflation, and even the path for interest rates. Markets are also beginning to price in the implications of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, including whether Jerome Powell will remain on the Board. As a result of all this, volatility is likely to stay elevated — making risk management, diversification, and patience (“be fearless!”) more important than chasing short-term moves.
Market Commentary - January 26, 2026
So How Is The 4Q Earnings Season Starting Off?
With so many geopolitical events happening with increased frequency, it is easy to get distracted from what really matters to the stock market – earnings. We’re still in the early days of getting 4Q 2025 earnings reports – only 13% of companies have reported to date. But it’s important to note that, so far, the S&P 500 is reporting year-over-year earnings growth for the 10th straight quarter with an 8% growth rate. According to FactSet, of the companies in the S&P 500 that have reported actual results for 4Q 2025 to date, 75% have reported actual EPS above estimates – which is below the 5- and 10-year averages. In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 5.3% above estimates, which is also below the 5- and 10-year averages. We are not surprised. In our Year Ahead report published in November, we highlighted that one of the risks this year would be that it would be harder for companies to beat expectations as analysts’ estimates had risen sharply. We don’t believe this is a negative, but it can lead to volatility within the market.