Market Commentary - September 17, 2025
The Corner September 2025
Our work continues to support a secular bull market, driven by economic growth, consumer spending, and transformative technologies. Corporate earnings continue to rise, profit margins are still expanding, and the markets anticipate that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut short-term interest rates 25 basis points this month, which could buoy the equity market and boost economic activity. Our year-end target for the S&P 500 is 7000, and we expect it to reach 7200 next year. Our long-term target for this secular bull market has the S&P 500 reaching 12,000–13,000 for by 2029–2030.
Perspectives - September 17, 2025
The Rise of Stablecoins
The rise of stablecoins is disrupting the global monetary system. Stablecoins, which are digital currencies pegged 1:1 to fiat currencies (e.g., the U.S. dollar), are rapidly transforming the global payment landscape by leveraging blockchain technology for fast, secure, and low-cost transactions. Unlike volatile cryptocurrencies, stablecoins such as Tether’s USDT and Circle’s USDC maintain stable value through their backing by U.S. Treasury bills, cash, short-term commercial paper and other relatively secure investments. This allows for near-instantaneous trade settlements at a fraction of the cost of traditional systems (e.g., SWIFT or CIPS). The recent passage of the GENIUS (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins) Act in the United States establishes a robust legal framework for stablecoin issuance and regulation, mandating 1:1 backing with high-quality reserves. This legislation, alongside the Crypto-Asset National Security Enhancement and Liability for Investors and Transparency (CLARITY) Act and the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) AntiSurveillance State Act, strengthens the U.S. dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency while fostering innovation in digital payments. Stablecoins are increasingly adopted for international trade and commercial transactions, offering significant cost savings and efficiency over conventional banking systems.
Market Commentary - September 15, 2025
Good Inflation Data Leads To Lower Interest Rates & Record Highs In Stocks
Markets cheered last week as a much better-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) and an as-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) sent interest rates lower and propelled stocks to record highs. Also supporting the move higher in stocks was the earnings report from Oracle (ORCL), which had blowout earnings growth, underscoring continued strong demand for artificial intelligence (AI) products. The market is pricing in 100% probability that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates this week by 25 basis points and that the Fed will cut twice more this year, in October and December. Lower rates support the economy, the consumer, and risk assets (which includes equities). We continue to believe the S&P 500 is tracking toward 7000, representing a 6% gain from current levels. We also are expecting the rally to continue into the first quarter of 2026, with the S&P 500 achieving 7200, which would be a nearly 10% gain. In our view, this Bull has got legs and is still charging ahead.
Perspectives - September 10, 2025
Chart Book August 2025
Global equities advanced in August on the back of strong corporate earnings, moderating inflation and expectations for lower interest rates. As measured by the S&P 500, U.S. stocks rose 2.0% despite weak labor data, tariff concerns, and persistent inflation. U.S. equity markets were lifted by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole remarks that fueled hopes for a September rate cut. International developed market equities were up 4.3% and emerging market equites were up 1.6%, as both were propelled by a weaker U.S. dollar. Sector performance was mixed as information technology lagged following reports of limited financial returns from most corporate AI pilots, while materials led gains on trade progress and stronger manufacturing. Healthcare outperformed thanks to attractive valuations and positive company-specific developments.
Market Commentary - September 8, 2025
August Employment Data Locks In Expected Rate Cut
Last week, the August employment report came in weaker than expected, with a mild uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.3% from 4.2%. But on the positive side, average hourly wages ticked down to 3.7%. The market is now expecting a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this month to support a weaker labor market. The market is also expecting additional interest rate cuts later this year. But with this week’s release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI), any sign that inflation is firming could rule out further rate cuts. What all this means is that volatility is to be expected.
Market Commentary - September 2, 2025
Stocks March To New Record Highs, Saying All Is Good
Back on April 2, President Trump’s self-proclaimed Liberation Day, it was hard to see that stocks would march into the summer months reaching new record highs. But here we are. And the equity market is saying “all is good” – emphatically. But how could this be? Well, there are two immediate answers to consider: 2Q25 earnings season was significantly stronger than what investors had been pricing in, and the strongest growth has come from Technology and Communication Services. These are both Growth sectors, and Growth continues to outperform Value – emphatically.
Sanctuary Wealth - August 19, 2025
A Slowing Bull Gathers Strength for a Longer Ride
The secular bull market continues to charge ahead in a summer rally driven by robust economic growth, consumer resilience, and transformative technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), Blockchain, Web 3.0, Virtual Reality (VR), and Robotics. Strong corporate earnings, rising profit margins, healthy returns on equity, along with nearly $7.1 trillion in money funds allow for further gains. Our year-end target for the S&P 500 is 7000 with 7200 being reached next year. Our secular bull market target sees the S&P 500 reaching 12,000–13,000 by 2029–2030. We believe that any seasonal weakness can provide investors with opportunities to enter into positions at more attractive levels.