Perspectives - December 23, 2025
The Corner December 2025
As we wrap up 2025, we see a continuation of our high-conviction view: we are still in a global secular bull market, even as the coming year looks to be more of a reset than a runaway rally. After a 100% gain off the 2022 lows and a powerful earnings cycle through 2025, we expect valuations to consolidate and volatility to rise. Our outlook is for the S&P 500 to trend toward 7500 in 2026, consistent with the historical pattern of mid-term election years and the decennial cycle. Beneath the surface, we believe the long-term runway is intact, with the secular trend pointing to 10,000-13,000 for the S&P 500 by the end of the decade. December has all but reinforced our view that the year ahead will be defined by three key market forces: a reset in Technology and Growth leadership, the acceleration of global equity markets within their own secular bull trend, and the ongoing impact of innovation-driven productivity gains. Technology and Tech-related industries – especially Semiconductors – remain the dominant engines fueling corporate profitability, but returns have been extraordinary and will likely consolidate before the next higher level. At the same time, non-U.S. equities have broken out to new secular highs, offering more attractive valuations and emerging opportunities for diversified portfolios.
Market Commentary - December 15, 2025
A Dovish Hawkish Rate Cut
The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) concluded its regular monetary policy meeting last Wednesday and announced a highly anticipated and eagerly awaited rate cut. It agreed to cut the Federal Funds rate cut by 25 bps to 3.50%–3.75%. But the Committee is not expecting many more interest rate cuts into 2026 – this was the hawkish side of their announcement and action. Separately, the Fed ended Quantitative Tightening (QT) on December 1, halting the runoff of securities from its balance sheet – a process that had been draining liquidity from financial markets. At the FOMC meeting, the Fed also signaled a willingness to provide additional liquidity by purchasing Treasury bills, reflecting seasonal funding pressures, which tend to put upward pressure on interest rates as businesses wind down activity toward year-end.
Perspectives - December 15, 2025
Chartbook November 2025
Following months of strong returns, global equities took a pause in November. During this period, the S&P 500 Index eked out a modest 0.3% gain amid a relatively positive backdrop of robust corporate earnings, rising expectations for interest rate cuts in the near term, and an end to the longest U.S. government shutdown on record. Despite these tailwinds, concerns around elevated valuations and AI-related spending dominated sentiment, putting significant pressure on growth stocks relative to value.
Market Commentary - December 8, 2025
A ‘Gift’ From The Fed? Markets Eager For A Rate Cut This Week
Much of the action this week revolves around the Federal Reserve (Fed). On Wednesday, the FOMC (Federal Reserve Open Market Committee), which sets monetary policy, will conclude its semi-quarterly meeting, and the market expects the FOMC to lower interest rates with a quarter-point cut (25 bps). But the Committee is deeply divided – more so than at any time since the early 1980s, when the Fed was finally taming inflation. Adding to the uncertainty, President Trump has indicated that he has selected a yet-to-be-named new Federal Reserve Chair, replacing Jerome Powell. Although Powell’s term does not end until May, many observers believe this will make him a lame duck chairman. However, markets don’t like uncertainty, so once the Fed chair successor is named, the market will shift its focus to what Fed policy direction is likely to be heading into the latter part of 2026.
Market Commentary - December 1, 2025
Shoppers Are Keeping The Holidays Merry
The National Retail Federation is expecting a merry holiday shopping season with a total spend during the Thanksgiving weekend – including Black Friday and Cyber Monday – to bring in over $1 Trillion. That’s up 3.7%-4.2% from last year. Consumers are helping to keep the holidays bright! As we have been reporting, the consumer has the disposable income and savings to spend – and holiday gifts top the shopping list! There is softness in the job market but having an unemployment rate below 5% still paints a strong employment backdrop.
Perspectives - September 17, 2025
The Rise of Stablecoins
The rise of stablecoins is disrupting the global monetary system. Stablecoins, which are digital currencies pegged 1:1 to fiat currencies (e.g., the U.S. dollar), are rapidly transforming the global payment landscape by leveraging blockchain technology for fast, secure, and low-cost transactions. Unlike volatile cryptocurrencies, stablecoins such as Tether’s USDT and Circle’s USDC maintain stable value through their backing by U.S. Treasury bills, cash, short-term commercial paper and other relatively secure investments. This allows for near-instantaneous trade settlements at a fraction of the cost of traditional systems (e.g., SWIFT or CIPS). The recent passage of the GENIUS (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins) Act in the United States establishes a robust legal framework for stablecoin issuance and regulation, mandating 1:1 backing with high-quality reserves. This legislation, alongside the Crypto-Asset National Security Enhancement and Liability for Investors and Transparency (CLARITY) Act and the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) AntiSurveillance State Act, strengthens the U.S. dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency while fostering innovation in digital payments. Stablecoins are increasingly adopted for international trade and commercial transactions, offering significant cost savings and efficiency over conventional banking systems.