Perspectives - January 16, 2026
Chartbook December 2025
The U.S. economy grew at a robust 4.3% annualized rate in the third quarter, far exceeding expectations and marking the strongest growth since Q3 2023. The expansion was driven mainly by consumer spending, particularly on healthcare - which alone added 0.8% to GDP - and on information-processing equipment such as consumer electronics. Government spending, led by federal defense outlays, contributed an additional 0.4%, while exports rose and imports fell. However, business investment slowed and consumer confidence dropped sharply in December to near five-year lows, signaling potential weakness ahead. Economists caution that slower consumer spending and the effects of the recent government shutdown are likely to weigh on growth in the final quarter of 2025.
Market Commentary - January 12, 2026
First On-Time Jobs Report Since Government Shutdown Shows Data Improvement
Last Friday we received the first good look at the job market since the government shutdown with the release of the December jobs data. The data shows the jobs market is soft but not weakening significantly. The report indicated that fewer jobs were created, but the unemployment rate improved, moving down to 4.4% from the prior report’s 4.6%figure, which helps to alleviate the Fed’s concern about the state of employment. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is not likely to move interest rates based on this data release, in our view. The market is expecting additional interest rate cuts but not until later in the year.
Perspectives - December 23, 2025
The Corner December 2025
As we wrap up 2025, we see a continuation of our high-conviction view: we are still in a global secular bull market, even as the coming year looks to be more of a reset than a runaway rally. After a 100% gain off the 2022 lows and a powerful earnings cycle through 2025, we expect valuations to consolidate and volatility to rise. Our outlook is for the S&P 500 to trend toward 7500 in 2026, consistent with the historical pattern of mid-term election years and the decennial cycle. Beneath the surface, we believe the long-term runway is intact, with the secular trend pointing to 10,000-13,000 for the S&P 500 by the end of the decade. December has all but reinforced our view that the year ahead will be defined by three key market forces: a reset in Technology and Growth leadership, the acceleration of global equity markets within their own secular bull trend, and the ongoing impact of innovation-driven productivity gains. Technology and Tech-related industries – especially Semiconductors – remain the dominant engines fueling corporate profitability, but returns have been extraordinary and will likely consolidate before the next higher level. At the same time, non-U.S. equities have broken out to new secular highs, offering more attractive valuations and emerging opportunities for diversified portfolios.
Perspectives - December 15, 2025
Chartbook November 2025
Following months of strong returns, global equities took a pause in November. During this period, the S&P 500 Index eked out a modest 0.3% gain amid a relatively positive backdrop of robust corporate earnings, rising expectations for interest rate cuts in the near term, and an end to the longest U.S. government shutdown on record. Despite these tailwinds, concerns around elevated valuations and AI-related spending dominated sentiment, putting significant pressure on growth stocks relative to value.