Perspectives - November 19, 2025
Chartbook October 2025
In October, global equity markets rose, supported by strong earnings, moderating inflation and expectations of lower interest rates. The U.S. NASDAQ led the gains, boosted by AI-related technology, while the MSCI EAFE IMI equities advanced more modestly. Emerging markets also continued to rally, led by South Korea and Taiwan’s tech and industrial sectors, though Chinese equities saw negative returns for the month.
Market Commentary - November 17, 2025
Holiday Blues: So Much For Positive Seasonals… But Be Hopeful
The ongoing market correction has been kept alive by worries about the valuations of technology artificial intelligence (AI) companies – combined with comments made last week by several Federal Reserve (Fed) members/governor, casting doubt on a possible interest rate cut in December. Not even the reopening of the government has been enough to move stocks higher. It is not seasonally normal to have a pullback in November, but we see the market as rotating out of the high valuation Growth stocks and rotating into cheaper Value stocks. Investors are now questioning whether this is a new sustainable trend or just a temporary rebalancing of the market. In our view, the current correction is a temporary rebalancing of the markets and that leadership will remain with Technology Growth companies. However – we may still have a few more weeks of volatility ahead of us. We maintain that the S&P 500 remains on track to rally to 7000 by year-end.
Market Commentary - November 10, 2025
Government Shutdown Surpasses 40 Days – Longest In History
Historically, a U.S. government shutdown does not have a material impact on the economy or the stock market. But now that we have reached the longest in history – surpassing 40 days – stress in the system is building: government workers not getting paid for almost a month; people who rely on food stamps in need of food; the government forcing a 10% cut in the number of airline flights, with a risk of this increasing further. The shutdown may also be weighing on the stock market – which has been in a corrective phase again despite strong 3Q earnings. On Friday, the stock market was looking like it would close down, but a hint of even temporary resolutions in Washington was enough to have the market rally and close up. This tells us the market wants a resolution on the government shutdown and, once we can get it, the bullish seasonals should kick in and the year-end market rally can begin. Pressures are certainly building to get the government funded again.
Market Commentary - November 3, 2025
The Federal Reserve Lowers Rates And Ends Quantitative Tightening
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded its meeting last Wednesday, electing to lower the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points from a range of 4%–4 ½% to 3¾%–4%. In addition, the FOMC voted to end quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1. Under QT, the Fed has been reducing its balance sheet by selling or letting Treasury and agency securities – primarily mortgage-backed securities (MBS) accumulated during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) – mature or roll off. QT is considered a form of tightening monetary policy. Stopping QT can be considered a form of monetary easing. In the news conference following the meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the FOMC considers its recent cuts in rates as a move toward a more neutral policy stance to support what it sees as a labor market facing downside risks. So far, the Fed views the rise in consumer prices as a one-time effect of tariffs working their way into the economy, which is expected to continue into the spring. Powell also noted that housing costs and services were mildly deflationary. He commented that shelter inflationary costs have been coming down and are expected to continue to trend downward.
Market Commentary - October 27, 2025
The Treat This Week Should Be A Rate Cut By The Fed
As the government shutdown continues, the flow of economic data has also been shut down. Earnings have been the leading news for the markets. It’s still early in earnings season, but so far, the first wave of announcements has started with a bang, with most companies reporting earnings better than expected. This is a big week for earnings with most of the Magnificent 7 (Mag 7) companies reporting earnings: Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Apple. Yet, the big news this week is the FOMC meeting with the market expecting a decision on Wednesday of a 25 basis point (bps) interest rate cut. As the market expects another 25 bps cut in December, all ears will be listening for comments that might confirm the continued cutting cycle. Attention will also be paid to comments about if/when the Fed will stop its Quantitative Tightening (QT). So far, the bond market is warming to the current rate cutting cycle as both the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields have been falling. We expect the 2-year to track toward 3% and the 10-year toward 3.8%. This is helping mortgage rates to also come down, a trend we expect to continue into next year. If the mortgage rate nears 5%, the housing market should improve.
Perspectives - October 27, 2025
The Corner October 2025
Our work continues to support a secular bull market driven by economic growth, consumer spending, and transformative technologies. Corporate earnings continue to rise, proof it margins are still expanding, and the markets anticipate that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut short-term interest rates 25 basis points again this month. We believe this could boost the equity market and hasten economic activity. Our year-end target for the S&P 500 remains 7000, and we expect it will reach 7200 early next year. Our long-term target for this secular bull market is 10,000–13,000 for the S&P 500 by 2029–2030. This month, we will look at average stock market performance over a presidential term and the effects of revisions in nonfarm payrolls. We’ll then review the sectors in the U.S. equity market and briefly describe how to use the overbought/oversold list we publish every week.
Perspectives - September 17, 2025
The Rise of Stablecoins
The rise of stablecoins is disrupting the global monetary system. Stablecoins, which are digital currencies pegged 1:1 to fiat currencies (e.g., the U.S. dollar), are rapidly transforming the global payment landscape by leveraging blockchain technology for fast, secure, and low-cost transactions. Unlike volatile cryptocurrencies, stablecoins such as Tether’s USDT and Circle’s USDC maintain stable value through their backing by U.S. Treasury bills, cash, short-term commercial paper and other relatively secure investments. This allows for near-instantaneous trade settlements at a fraction of the cost of traditional systems (e.g., SWIFT or CIPS). The recent passage of the GENIUS (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins) Act in the United States establishes a robust legal framework for stablecoin issuance and regulation, mandating 1:1 backing with high-quality reserves. This legislation, alongside the Crypto-Asset National Security Enhancement and Liability for Investors and Transparency (CLARITY) Act and the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) AntiSurveillance State Act, strengthens the U.S. dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency while fostering innovation in digital payments. Stablecoins are increasingly adopted for international trade and commercial transactions, offering significant cost savings and efficiency over conventional banking systems.