Uncategorized - February 23, 2026
The Supreme Court Rules Against Trump’s Tariffs
In a highly anticipated ruling last Friday morning, the Supreme Court (SCOTUS) ruled 6-3 that President Trump overstepped his authority by using a 1977 emergency powers law (IEEPA) to impose broad global tariffs on imports from nearly every country. SCOTUS said tariffs are basically taxes, and in normal circumstances, only Congress has the authority to impose them, not the president acting alone. The Court’s decision knocks out most of the wide-reaching tariffs from 2025, but leaves other specific ones in place (such as those on steel and aluminum, for security reasons or unfair practices from China). With SCOTUS’ announcement coming out just days ahead of President Trump's State of the Union speech, set for tomorrow night (Tuesday), he hit back quickly. In a press conference on Friday, Trump called the ruling "deeply disappointing" and announced a new temporary 10% tariff on imports from almost everywhere (using a different old trade law, Section 122, which lasts up to 150 days). Then on Saturday, Trump upped the new tariff to 15%. For many countries, even the 15% is lower than the previous rates on their imports, so it's short-term relief. The exception is China, where existing tough tariffs stay unchanged and could even rise. Now the big headline – and headache – is refunds. The government collected $140 billion to $200 billion from the now-illegal tariffs. Businesses may be fighting in court for years to get money back, creating uncertainty surrounding the refunds, international trade, and the federal deficit, which would rise if the government must refund the tariffs it collected. Even so, markets liked the SCOTUS announcement overall. Stocks rose modestly on Friday because the decision dials back some extreme trade-war risks and eases fears of big price hikes or profit hits for companies. Still, the new 15% blanket tariff adds some costs, and more twists could come, so keep an eye open for further developments.
Perspectives - February 18, 2026
The Corner February 2026
The equity market has started the year experiencing high volatility. It feels like a whole year’s worth of events compressed into just a month and a half. We expect this heightened volatility to persist through a good portion of 2026, which is seen as the norm for mid-term election years. Why? Because historically mid-term election years have been the most turbulent phase of the presidential cycle, with average drawdowns (corrections) of 19%. But it’s important to note that the rallies that occurred off of the lows of those corrections were very strong, gaining an average of 31% one year later.
Market Commentary - February 17, 2026
Jobs Report Delivers A Positive Employment Backdrop
Private payrolls rose by 172,000, also significantly exceeding expectations. The unemployment rate fell from 4.4% to 4.3%. This was a strong, positive report. On the government side, jobs declined by 42,000 overall, with federal government jobs down 34,000, state jobs down 18,000, and local jobs up 10,000. The report also included the annual benchmark revision, which lowered prior-year employment estimates. March 2025 was revised downward by about 862,000 on a not seasonally adjusted basis, while seasonally adjusted revisions totaled a loss of roughly 898,000 – indicating that the prior period was weaker than previously reported.
Market Commentary - February 9, 2026
Expect The Theme Of 2026 To Remain Volatility
The equity market has started the year experiencing high volatility, as reflected in the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), which has already reached 20 six times in just six weeks. It feels like a whole year’s worth of events compressed into just a month and a half. We expect this heightened volatility to persist through a good portion of 2026 – which is seen as the norm for mid-term election years. Why? Because historically they have been the most turbulent phase of the presidential cycle, with average drawdowns (corrections) of 19%. But it’s important to note that the rallies that occurred off of the lows of those corrections were very strong – gaining an average of 31% one year later. So far, the S&P 500 is following the historical pattern of a mid-term election year. Investors need to remain fearless and, to weather this volatility, portfolios need to be diversified. We maintain that a secular bull market remains intact, and our year-end forecast for the S&P 500 is 7500.
Market Commentary - February 2, 2026
As Goes January, So Goes The Year
Earnings And Jobs Data To Be The Headliners. This week, we’ll get to digest key economic data, evolving Fed dynamics, and more all-important earnings. This week brings several potential market catalysts. Fourth-quarter earnings continue, while January labor data — including the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), ADP private payrolls, and Friday’s employment report — will shape expectations around economic growth, inflation, and even the path for interest rates. Markets are also beginning to price in the implications of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, including whether Jerome Powell will remain on the Board. As a result of all this, volatility is likely to stay elevated — making risk management, diversification, and patience (“be fearless!”) more important than chasing short-term moves.