Market Commentary - March 23, 2026
Spring Has Sprung But A Blossoming Market May Take Some Time
This week appears unusually quiet on the economic and corporate calendar. There are no major U.S. data releases, no FOMC meetings, and earnings season has largely concluded. The most notable scheduled event is Tuesday’s flash PMIs, which will offer an early read on global services activity. With the calendar light, market direction is likely to remain driven primarily by developments in the Middle East, movements in oil prices, and ongoing reactions to this week’s more cautious Fed messaging. What the market is not positioned for is some good news… which would be welcomed!
Market Commentary - March 16, 2026
The Ides of March Is Upon Us
This week, markets will peek between data reports for glimpses of high tech innovation as well as interest rate prognostication. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets Wednesday and will release its economic projections along with its “dot plot,” which reflects members’ estimates of how the Fed funds rate will move in coming months. Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference following the meeting. With oil prices elevated and inflation concerns resurfacing in pockets of the economy, markets are not anticipating rate cuts any time soon. Producer Price Index (PPI) data will also be released this week. Recent readings have been creeping higher, so the bond market will likely pay close attention to that report.
Market Commentary - March 9, 2026
Stocks Correcting Amid Global Tensions: Bending, Not Breaking
Last week, there were a number of surprising events and unexpected actions in the Middle East. Tensions escalated as the U.S. and Israel continued their bombardment of Iran which, in turn, attacked several neighboring countries. A U.S. submarine torpedoed and destroyed an Iranian warship – the first such sinking in more than 40 years, and only the third such event since World War II. Hezbollah in Lebanon exchanged attacks with Israel. Concerns remain that oil tankers cannot move through the Strait of Hormuz (a narrow waterway that carries about 20% of the world's oil supply) as insurance costs have soared. With oil not moving, storage facilities are filling up, leading to several countries announcing cuts in production. All this turmoil is causing oil prices to rise sharply with WTI crude oil moving to nearly $120 overnight Sunday but falling back to near $100 in early Monday morning trading.
Market Commentary - March 3, 2026
Market Insights: Markets & the Iranian Conflict
After the U.S. and Israeli conducted joint military strikes on Iran, Sanctuary Wealth Chief Investment Strategist Mary Ann Bartels emphasizes why it is important for investors to remain patient despite unrest in the Middle East. Mary Ann points out that price of crude oil is expected to remain within a range that still allows the economy, the consumer and earnings to remain strong. She stresses that internal market indicators suggest we remain in a U.S. secular bull market. “We are of the belief that what is happening with the military event in Iran is temporary and is not going to derail the bull market,” she said.
Market Commentary - March 2, 2026
Will Energy Prices Derail The Bull? We Don’t Believe So.
Yesterday, there was a previously scheduled meeting of OPEC+ intended to help contain oil prices. The group agreed to a modest production increase of 206,000 barrels per day — a move designed to limit the magnitude of any price spike. From a technical perspective, WTI oil prices were positioned to rally to $70-$75 and, as markets open today, oil is trading within the range. If crude oil supplies are not blocked and remain available, it is possible prices will stay within this trading range. Should oil break the $75 level, the first resistance level is $80 followed by $90. There is good resistance around $80, which leads us to believe that crude moving much higher is unlikely – unless there is a significant oil shortage. At this time, we don’t see a path to a $100 oil price.
Uncategorized - February 23, 2026
The Supreme Court Rules Against Trump’s Tariffs
In a highly anticipated ruling last Friday morning, the Supreme Court (SCOTUS) ruled 6-3 that President Trump overstepped his authority by using a 1977 emergency powers law (IEEPA) to impose broad global tariffs on imports from nearly every country. SCOTUS said tariffs are basically taxes, and in normal circumstances, only Congress has the authority to impose them, not the president acting alone. The Court’s decision knocks out most of the wide-reaching tariffs from 2025, but leaves other specific ones in place (such as those on steel and aluminum, for security reasons or unfair practices from China). With SCOTUS’ announcement coming out just days ahead of President Trump's State of the Union speech, set for tomorrow night (Tuesday), he hit back quickly. In a press conference on Friday, Trump called the ruling "deeply disappointing" and announced a new temporary 10% tariff on imports from almost everywhere (using a different old trade law, Section 122, which lasts up to 150 days). Then on Saturday, Trump upped the new tariff to 15%. For many countries, even the 15% is lower than the previous rates on their imports, so it's short-term relief. The exception is China, where existing tough tariffs stay unchanged and could even rise. Now the big headline – and headache – is refunds. The government collected $140 billion to $200 billion from the now-illegal tariffs. Businesses may be fighting in court for years to get money back, creating uncertainty surrounding the refunds, international trade, and the federal deficit, which would rise if the government must refund the tariffs it collected. Even so, markets liked the SCOTUS announcement overall. Stocks rose modestly on Friday because the decision dials back some extreme trade-war risks and eases fears of big price hikes or profit hits for companies. Still, the new 15% blanket tariff adds some costs, and more twists could come, so keep an eye open for further developments.
Perspectives - February 18, 2026
The Corner February 2026
The equity market has started the year experiencing high volatility. It feels like a whole year’s worth of events compressed into just a month and a half. We expect this heightened volatility to persist through a good portion of 2026, which is seen as the norm for mid-term election years. Why? Because historically mid-term election years have been the most turbulent phase of the presidential cycle, with average drawdowns (corrections) of 19%. But it’s important to note that the rallies that occurred off of the lows of those corrections were very strong, gaining an average of 31% one year later.