Market Commentary - December 1, 2025
Shoppers Are Keeping The Holidays Merry
The National Retail Federation is expecting a merry holiday shopping season with a total spend during the Thanksgiving weekend – including Black Friday and Cyber Monday – to bring in over $1 Trillion. That’s up 3.7%-4.2% from last year. Consumers are helping to keep the holidays bright! As we have been reporting, the consumer has the disposable income and savings to spend – and holiday gifts top the shopping list! There is softness in the job market but having an unemployment rate below 5% still paints a strong employment backdrop.
Market Commentary - November 24, 2025
How The Grinch Won’t Steal The Year-End Rally
Last week the markets enjoyed really good news with blowout earnings from Nvidia (NVDA) and an earnings report from Walmart (WMT) that showed consumers are still spending, though they’re being more selective about where they shop. We also are finally getting badly needed economic data. Last Thursday, the September employment report was released and there was something for the doves on the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) – those who want lower interest rates – and something for the hawks – those who want to pause further rate cuts. Despite the good news, the equity markets continued to decline sharply. Then on Friday, John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (NY Fed), said he sees room for the Fed to lower rates in the near term as the labor market softens; the equity markets liked what they heard and rallied. The NY Fed carries a lot of weight on the FOMC, as a permanent voting member. It’s clear that the equity markets want lower interest rates. But the Fed decision is still weeks away (December 10th). So, let’s take a look at where the equity markets stand.
Perspectives - November 19, 2025
Chartbook October 2025
In October, global equity markets rose, supported by strong earnings, moderating inflation and expectations of lower interest rates. The U.S. NASDAQ led the gains, boosted by AI-related technology, while the MSCI EAFE IMI equities advanced more modestly. Emerging markets also continued to rally, led by South Korea and Taiwan’s tech and industrial sectors, though Chinese equities saw negative returns for the month.
Market Commentary - November 17, 2025
Holiday Blues: So Much For Positive Seasonals… But Be Hopeful
The ongoing market correction has been kept alive by worries about the valuations of technology artificial intelligence (AI) companies – combined with comments made last week by several Federal Reserve (Fed) members/governor, casting doubt on a possible interest rate cut in December. Not even the reopening of the government has been enough to move stocks higher. It is not seasonally normal to have a pullback in November, but we see the market as rotating out of the high valuation Growth stocks and rotating into cheaper Value stocks. Investors are now questioning whether this is a new sustainable trend or just a temporary rebalancing of the market. In our view, the current correction is a temporary rebalancing of the markets and that leadership will remain with Technology Growth companies. However – we may still have a few more weeks of volatility ahead of us. We maintain that the S&P 500 remains on track to rally to 7000 by year-end.
Market Commentary - November 10, 2025
Government Shutdown Surpasses 40 Days – Longest In History
Historically, a U.S. government shutdown does not have a material impact on the economy or the stock market. But now that we have reached the longest in history – surpassing 40 days – stress in the system is building: government workers not getting paid for almost a month; people who rely on food stamps in need of food; the government forcing a 10% cut in the number of airline flights, with a risk of this increasing further. The shutdown may also be weighing on the stock market – which has been in a corrective phase again despite strong 3Q earnings. On Friday, the stock market was looking like it would close down, but a hint of even temporary resolutions in Washington was enough to have the market rally and close up. This tells us the market wants a resolution on the government shutdown and, once we can get it, the bullish seasonals should kick in and the year-end market rally can begin. Pressures are certainly building to get the government funded again.
Perspectives - September 17, 2025
The Rise of Stablecoins
The rise of stablecoins is disrupting the global monetary system. Stablecoins, which are digital currencies pegged 1:1 to fiat currencies (e.g., the U.S. dollar), are rapidly transforming the global payment landscape by leveraging blockchain technology for fast, secure, and low-cost transactions. Unlike volatile cryptocurrencies, stablecoins such as Tether’s USDT and Circle’s USDC maintain stable value through their backing by U.S. Treasury bills, cash, short-term commercial paper and other relatively secure investments. This allows for near-instantaneous trade settlements at a fraction of the cost of traditional systems (e.g., SWIFT or CIPS). The recent passage of the GENIUS (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins) Act in the United States establishes a robust legal framework for stablecoin issuance and regulation, mandating 1:1 backing with high-quality reserves. This legislation, alongside the Crypto-Asset National Security Enhancement and Liability for Investors and Transparency (CLARITY) Act and the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) AntiSurveillance State Act, strengthens the U.S. dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency while fostering innovation in digital payments. Stablecoins are increasingly adopted for international trade and commercial transactions, offering significant cost savings and efficiency over conventional banking systems.