Sanctuary Wealth - August 19, 2025
A Slowing Bull Gathers Strength for a Longer Ride
The secular bull market continues to charge ahead in a summer rally driven by robust economic growth, consumer resilience, and transformative technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), Blockchain, Web 3.0, Virtual Reality (VR), and Robotics. Strong corporate earnings, rising profit margins, healthy returns on equity, along with nearly $7.1 trillion in money funds allow for further gains. Our year-end target for the S&P 500 is 7000 with 7200 being reached next year. Our secular bull market target sees the S&P 500 reaching 12,000–13,000 by 2029–2030. We believe that any seasonal weakness can provide investors with opportunities to enter into positions at more attractive levels.
Market Commentary - August 18, 2025
Mixed Signals For Interest Rates From Consumer And Producer Price Data
With markets near historic highs, investors are weighing the odds that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower rates at the next meeting of its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on September 19. President Trump has made it clear he wants rate cuts – most presidents prefer rate cuts. The Fed, particularly Fed Chair Jerome Powell, has made it clear that it prefers to wait. Mixed signals from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) last week left the Treasury bond market disappointed and investors wondering what the FOMC might do about rates.
Market Commentary - August 11, 2025
Markets Face Crosswinds At The Top
Markets remain near historic highs as policy transitions take shape in Washington. At the Federal Reserve (Fed), President Trump has nominated Stephen Miran to temporarily fill the vacancy on the Fed’s Board of Governors created by Adrian Kugler’s early resignation. It should be noted that Miran supports lower rates and has criticized Chair Powell’s reluctance to ease current policy. Trade policy is also evolving: tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals are expected soon, with exemptions for companies investing in U.S. production. These moves reinforce a broader strategy favoring domestic capital formation. Technology firms have pledged more than $2 trillion in new U.S. investment, focusing heavily on AI (artificial intelligence). A new executive order from Trump is designed to allow retirement plans to access private markets and digital assets, expanding consumer access alternatives. Regulatory engagement with blockchain is also increasing, with Ethereum gaining traction under the GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act). Beneath the surface, market-based signals continue to support a constructive outlook that is being driven by productivity gains, industrial re-shoring, and leadership in innovation and growth.
Market Commentary - August 7, 2025
Dog Days Of Summer
As we head into August, the market is showing signs of fatigue. While the S&P 500 remains near record highs, the rally has lost some of its earlier energy. July’s jobs report came in light, with only 73,000 new payrolls added – well below expectations – and perhaps an early sign that the labor market is beginning to cool. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) opted to keep interest rates unchanged last week as expected, but the decision wasn’t unanimous. For the first time since 1993, two FOMC members dissented, voting in favor of a rate cut. The Fed’s current stance remains mildly restrictive, with ongoing balance sheet reduction quietly draining liquidity from the system, which is estimated to be about a 50-basis point tightening. Following the announcement of significant revisions in employment figures for June and May (downward of a combined 258,000 jobs!), along with surprisingly weak numbers for July, President Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, and later that day, a member of the Federal Reserve Board resigned. In addition to all this, Trump announced tariffs against over 60 countries, ranging from 10% to 41% – they’re due to take effect on Thursday August 7. Markets responded with a decidedly cautious tone. However, we wouldn’t be surprised to see more volatility during August, a month known as a market peak that leads to a correction during the months of September and October.
Perspectives - July 14, 2025
Mid Year Outlook
Buoyed by equity markets hitting record highs, we entered 2025 with strong optimism – but this outlook was quickly upended by the unexpected tariffs from the Trump Administration followed by a sudden escalation of war in the Middle East, which drew in the United States. The tariff battle led to a bear market sell-off of 20%, and the bombing of Iran by Israel and the U.S. saw oil prices rise sharply. But stocks quickly recovered, and oil fell just as sharply within days. It felt like we were in a warp drive of events. We also had a significant drop in inflation with interest rates trending down. So, as we enter the second half of 2025, equity markets are at new highs, interest rates continue to fall, the Middle East war has possibly turned to peace, and tariffs still need negotiations.