Market Commentary - October 22, 2026
The Corner October 2026
The S&P 500 remains in a secular bull market. Strong earnings growth, continued upward earnings estimate revisions, and reasonable valuations make us comfortable with our S&P 500 year-end target at 8,225. Over the coming years, we still see the index reaching a secular peak near 10,000–13,000. Information Technology remains the secular market leadership, with Semiconductors the industry leader within the sector. The Federal Reserve has begun a tightening cycle and it historically takes several interest rate hikes by the Fed to disrupt a bull market rally. There is an old Wall Street adage: “three steps and a stumble,” meaning it takes three interest rate hikes to cause a correction in stocks. It matches an observation of investor Sir John Templeton: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” The market may be mature, but we don’t believe we have reached euphoria. Near term, we continue to expect volatility, driven primarily by the unresolved conflict with Iran and the uncertainty typical of a mid-term election year. October has historically been a month when major market bottoms form, often setting the stage for a year-end rally. We remain buyers of this market and continue to expect stocks to move higher into year-end. We do not expect higher Fed interest rates to significantly weaken the economy or consumer spending this year, although that risk could become more meaningful as we enter 2027.
Market Commentary - October 19, 2026
Treasury Yields Pull Back As Semiconductors Seek A Bottom
Earnings and economic data will drive the market this week, led by major reports from Meta (META) and Tesla (TSLA) on Wednesday. Investors will be watching Meta closely for commentary on AI capital spending and the adoption of Muse, its new AI agent, which appears to be a key element of the company’s turnaround. Airline earnings will also be in focus, particularly comments on jet fuel costs and consumers’ willingness to pay higher ticket prices. Procter & Gamble (PG), a Consumer Staples bellwether, reports Thursday, providing another window into consumer spending. The economic calendar is also busy. On Tuesday, the Census Bureau will report Housing Starts and Building Permits, while the National Association of Realtors will report Pending Home Sales. On Friday, S&P Global will release its U.S. Manufacturing and Services PMIs, followed by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Meanwhile, the FOMC blackout period began Saturday ahead of its October 27–28 meeting, leaving investors without any new guidance from Fed officials this week. No rate hike is expected at the meeting, with Bloomberg putting the probability of the Fed holding rates steady at 85%. 10
Market Commentary - October 12, 2026
3Q Earnings Season Begins This Week
This week the Banks will begin the earnings parade leading into the seasonally strong year-end season. Banks kick off third-quarter earnings season this week, with results providing an early read on the strength of corporate earnings. We will be watching Net Interest Margins (NIM), along with trading and investment banking revenues. Inflation will be the other major focus. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is released Wednesday, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. If CPI and PPI come in as expected — headline CPI at 3.6% year over year and core CPI at 2.5% — the Treasury market could get some relief. Higher-than-expected inflation could push yields up and put pressure on stocks. Existing home sales will also be released this week. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks Friday at the IMF Annual Meeting in Bangkok. Markets will scrutinize his comments for clues about the FOMC’s next moves at its October 28 and December 9 meetings, particularly after the recent rise in Treasury yields and renewed concerns about inflation.
Market Commentary - October 5, 2026
September Better Than History – Entering October With Tech Breakout
October Starting On Good Footing – Not Too Spooky… Yet Last week was packed with economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials. This week brings fewer of both. The biggest item should be the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from its September 16 meeting, when it voted to raise interest rates. Traders and investors will scrutinize the minutes for insight into why some FOMC members dissented from the rate hike, the Committee’s view on the long end of the Treasury curve, and whether there is any support for Fed Governor Cook’s position that the AI infrastructure buildout has “surprisingly persistent” inflation effects. A dovish surprise could lower Treasury yields and provide another boost to equities. On the data side, we’ll see S&P Global services and composite purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) today, along with the ISM services index. The August trade balance arrives Tuesday, followed on Friday by the University of Michigan’s preliminary reading on consumer sentiment.
Market Commentary - September 28, 2026
Higher Interest Rates And Oil Prices Are Not Having A Big Impact On Stocks
This week could be jumpy with a barrage of data and month-end/quarter-end volatility. Investors face a packed economic calendar this week, culminating in Friday's September employment report. Other key releases include consumer confidence, job openings, personal income, PCE inflation, jobless claims, manufacturing data, and factory orders. Micron Technology (MU) reports fiscal fourth-quarter earnings, providing additional insight into semiconductor sector performance. With month-end and quarter-end rebalancing also underway, markets could experience heightened volatility.