Market Commentary Market Insights

Market Commentary – April 16, 2026

Trump Says End To Iran War In Sight

Wednesday morning, President Trump said that the end to the Iran war is in sight. In addition, the Associated Press is reporting the U.S. and Iran have given an “in principle agreement” to extend the ceasefire. Equity markets are forward looking, discounting events about six months ahead, and the rally in stocks, although somewhat surprising, appears to be discounting a successful resolution with the conflict in Iran. It is even discounting the higher oil prices, implying this shock will not have a significant negative impact on earnings. As long as the S&P 500 respects the gap on April 8th (6618) and the 200-day moving average (6670) holds, the correction is completed. Importantly, the 14-week Stochastic on the S&P has also generated a buy signal, but we would still brace for volatility. Our year-end target for the S&P 500 remains at 7500 and our longer-term target has the S&P reaching 10,000-13,000 by the end of the decade.