Perspectives – July 14, 2025
What’s New is Old But New Record Highs Never Get Old
A Brief Review of 2025
A Year Of War, Tariffs, Lower Inflation & Interest Rates
Buoyed by equity markets hitting record highs, we entered 2025 with strong optimism – but this outlook was quickly upended by the unexpected tariffs from the Trump Administration followed by a sudden escalation of war in the Middle East, which drew in the United States. The tariff battle led to a bear market sell-off of 20%, and the bombing of Iran by Israel and the U.S. saw oil prices rise sharply. But stocks quickly recovered, and oil fell just as sharply within days. It felt like we were in a warp drive of events. We also had a significant drop in inflation with interest rates trending down. So, as we enter the second half of 2025, equity markets are at new highs, interest rates continue to fall, the Middle East war has possibly turned to peace, and tariffs still need negotiations.
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