So How Is The 4Q Earnings Season Starting Off?

Market Commentary – January 26, 2026

With so many geopolitical events happening with increased frequency, it is easy to get distracted from what really matters to the stock market – earnings.

We’re still in the early days of getting 4Q 2025 earnings reports – only 13% of companies have reported to date. But it’s important to note that, so far, the S&P 500 is reporting year-over-year earnings growth for the 10th straight quarter with an 8% growth rate. According to FactSet, of the companies in the S&P 500 that have reported actual results for 4Q 2025 to date, 75% have reported actual EPS above estimates – which is below the 5- and 10-year averages. In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 5.3% above estimates, which is also below the 5- and 10-year averages. We are not surprised. In our Year Ahead report published in November, we highlighted that one of the risks this year would be that it would be harder for companies to beat expectations as analysts’ estimates had risen sharply. We don’t believe this is a negative, but it can lead to volatility within the market.

Gold’s Glittering Expected To Continue: Raising Target To $6500

Gold has been soaring since last year, and as we entered 2026, our target on Gold was $5000 – and now we are already there, with Gold closing at $4979. Being in a heightened geopolitical environment along with foreign central banks diversifying out of Treasuries and into Gold – it is our view that it is unlikely for Gold to go down sustainably. Therefore, we are raising our target to $6500 and we believe Gold is tracking a longer-term target of $8000-$10,000.

This week, we’ll see more earnings reports roll out as global news and economic data roll on.

Geopolitical developments are likely to remain a persistent source of attention-grabbing headlines, while earnings season begins to gather momentum. This week, results from Microsoft (MSFT) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) will offer important insight into technology and AI-related spending trends. On the macro front, investors will be focused on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Wednesday, alongside key economic data including Consumer Confidence, capital expenditure (Capex) trends within Durable Goods, and the December Producer Price Index. Against this backdrop, we continue to encourage investors to remain fearless and stay invested with a well-diversified portfolio.