Spring Has Sprung But A Blossoming Market May Take Some Time

Market Commentary – March 23, 2026

It was another volatile week in the markets dominated by the Federal Reserve’s stance on rates, stubbornly high oil prices, and shifting signals across bonds, commodities, and the economy.

The Fed’s Message: Cautious And Patient

Last week, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) held rates steady and released its latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), including the closely watched “dot plot” outlining each Committee member’s expectations for interest rates. The latest projections continue to signal just one rate cut in 2026.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell was quick to remind everyone that the dots are not set in stone: “People are more than happy to change their SEP [Summary of Economic Projections] dots. No one is bound by them.” Key takeaways from the SEP included:

• Growth and inflation forecasts for 2025–2027 were revised higher, while the rate path remained largely unchanged, signaling the Fed’s reluctance to tighten policy further.

• FOMC members are increasingly concerned about upside inflation risks from energy prices, tariffs, and global conflicts, shifting the balance of risks.

Markets are increasingly skeptical about the likelihood of that single interest rate cut materializing this year. Futures pricing is currently reflecting a growing concern that the Fed may leave rates unchanged longer than previously expected. That said, the path of least resistance for rates over the longer term still points lower, in our view. But the change will just not be as quick as many had hoped a few months ago. Chair Powell also addressed his status at the Fed, stating he will remain in his role as Chair Pro Tem until a successor is confirmed by the Senate. He also indicated that he does not intend to step down from the Board while the Department of Justice’s ongoing criminal investigation – launched in early 2026 and focused on his testimony regarding multi-billion-dollar Federal Reserve building renovations – remains unresolved.