Summer Brings New Record High

Market Commentary – July 14, 2025

As we move deeper into the summer and the long lingering uncertainty of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” is now behind us, stocks have been charging to new highs on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

And though the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has not yet hit its own new highs, we expect it will. Breadth and volume are confirming the ongoing rally, giving us confidence that the secular bull market is alive and well. We expect there will be more volatility as President Trump continues to negotiate more waves of tariffs. Plus, with the valuation of the S&P 500 at the upper end, investors are nervous.

We enter the 2Q25 earnings season with the Banks reporting this week. Earnings expectations are low this quarter, as analysts have taken a more cautious stance in response to the impact of tariffs on corporate margins and global demand. We believe there may be numerous earnings surprises, which would help support the market in continuing to reach new highs. If this is correct, the valuation of the market may not be as high as it seems. We expect the S&P 500 to be able to achieve an additional 11% upside this year. So, we remain buyers on any pullbacks.