The Summer Sizzle Continues

Market Commentary – July 28, 2025

Market reaction to President Trump’s barrage of tariffs appears to have gone from negative to neutral-positive at least for now, because as of this writing, Trump has just announced a 15% tariff on most imports from the European Union (EU). The deal also includes the EU agreeing to purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy and inject an additional $600 billion worth of investments into the U.S. above current levels. This deal is significantly larger than the deal with Japan. So far, the market is reacting positively.

Earnings for 2Q25 are coming in and, so far, at a growth rate of 10%, double the original expected 5%. This dynamic is propelling our Bull deeper into a rally, driving stocks to new record highs. July is seasonally a strong month with August typically seeing a peak; then September is seasonally weak with an expected correction, followed by a major bottom in October before a seasonal strong year-end rally kicks in. Barring any major setback from the tariffs, we expect the market to follow this seasonal pattern. Our S&P 500 target remains 7000.