Market Commentary Uncertainty Remains

Market Commentary – April 14, 2026

The markets rebounded last week in hopes that hostilities in the Persian Gulf will soon cease and that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen to normal shipping traffic.

So far, shipping has not returned to normal, and the tentative ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has been repeatedly violated. Talks seeking more permanent solutions began Saturday in Pakistan but failed to achieve a resolution. This prompted President Trump to announce yesterday that the U.S. will blockade ships entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz. Axios reported that two U.S. Navy destroyers sailed into the Strait, setting the conditions for a mine-clearing operation. Against this backdrop, we expect continued market volatility, with crude oil being a main driver. This week also sees the official start of the earnings season with many of the major banks reporting.

Oil Prices Dominate The Economic Backdrop

Oil prices continue to dominate the economic backdrop, not only as a primary source of fuel, especially for transportation, but as feedstock for all manner of industrial and technological goods. Even after significant declines from recent highs, crude still trades near 20-year highs with resistance in the $115-$120 range. A sustained move above $120 would signal a breakout, increasing the risk of a move toward $150. Should crude break out, we would not expect prices to remain at such elevated levels for an extended period.