Market Commentary – March 2, 2026
Following the U.S.-Israeli operation that eliminated Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and dozens of senior regime leaders, tensions in the Middle East remain high.
Investors are focused on two immediate questions: What happens to oil prices and how will this military action impact the markets and the U.S. economy?
Yesterday, there was a previously scheduled meeting of OPEC+ intended to help contain oil prices. The group agreed to a modest production increase of 206,000 barrels per day — a move designed to limit the magnitude of any price spike. From a technical perspective, WTI oil prices were positioned to rally to $70-$75 and, as markets open today, oil is trading within the range. If crude oil supplies are not blocked and remain available, it is possible prices will stay within this trading range. Should oil break the $75 level, the first resistance level is $80 followed by $90. There is good resistance around $80, which leads us to believe that crude moving much higher is unlikely – unless there is a significant oil shortage. At this time, we don’t see a path to a $100 oil price.
Energy And Defense Stocks Along With U.S. Dollar Are Trading Higher
Higher oil prices are having a negative impact on equity prices, but the decline so far is modest. The areas of the market that are rallying are Energy and Defense stocks, which we continue to believe will perform well. The U.S. dollar is also trading higher as investors still believe the dollar is a safe haven asset. The dollar remains range-bound with a bias to the upside.
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