Market Commentary – March 3, 2025
Tariff talk by the Trump Administration is creating uncertainty and investors have decided to take profits across the equity and crypto markets – and even in the gold market. Markets loathe uncertainty. Why? Investors tend to either hold back or sell profitable investments, and company managements freeze business development and hiring until there’s more clarity. The DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) firings are also adding to consumer concerns. Uncertainty usually means lower equity prices, and investors retreat from equities toward the safety of cash and Treasury bonds. Treasuries have performed quite well recently, with yields collapsing. We believe that, with all the tariff talk and DOGE actions, the markets are pricing in a slower economy. Remember: it is normal to have three 5% corrections in a year and one 10% correction. The S&P 500 is currently in a correction of about 7%, with the risk of going to 10%; meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 is having at least a 10% correction, but could go deeper depending on how tariff events unfold. For investors looking to buy – especially technology stocks – we believe this is your buying opportunity. Attractive “buy points” are never on good news, so investors need to take a longer-term view. We believe the markets will find their footing once we get clarity around the tariffs. We maintain our S&P 500 target of 7200-7400 for this year and 10,000-13,000 by the end of the decade. The secular Bull is intact, but the Bucking Bull does not want to be corralled.
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