Market Commentary - April 20, 2026
Middle East Hostilities Are Ongoing
As of last Friday, the situation in the Middle East showed tentative signs of de-escalation, with Iran announcing that the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open” to commercial shipping for the remainder of the current ceasefire, set to expire around April 22. However, developments over the weekend have reversed much of that progress. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reimposed strict control over the Strait, citing the ongoing U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports and coastal areas. Iranian gunboats fired on at least one Indian flagged tanker (and forced others to turn back) despite prior assurances of safe passage. Meanwhile, internal regime divisions—particularly between IRGC hardliners and more pragmatic political/diplomatic factions—have contributed to the mixed signals and abrupt policy shifts. The U.S. has maintained its full blockade and signaled plans to board or seize Iran-linked vessels anywhere in the world in the coming days. And that's exactly what the U.S. Navy did yesterday (Sunday), taking control of an Iranian cargo ship that tried to run its blockade in the Strait.
Market Commentary - April 14, 2026
Uncertainty Remains
The markets rebounded last week in hopes that hostilities in the Persian Gulf will soon cease and that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen to normal shipping traffic. So far, shipping has not returned to normal, and the tentative ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has been repeatedly violated. Talks seeking more permanent solutions began Saturday in Pakistan but failed to achieve a resolution. This prompted President Trump to announce yesterday that the U.S. will blockade ships entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz. Axios reported that two U.S. Navy destroyers sailed into the Strait, setting the conditions for a mine-clearing operation. Against this backdrop, we expect continued market volatility, with crude oil being a main driver. This week also sees the official start of the earnings season with many of the major banks reporting.
Market Commentary - April 13, 2026
April Showers Bring May Flowers
As the conflict in Iran continues, we are likely to see a fair amount of volatility during the month of April. Oil prices have surged and WTI crude oil is trading above $100. Considering how high crude prices are, the equity and bond markets have held up extremely well. But the longer the conflict continues and oil prices remain elevated, the more likely equities will stay in correction mode. April tends to be a down month both seasonally and during a mid-term election year. But we want to stress that, in our view, this is a correction within an ongoing secular bull market, which we expect to extend through the end of the decade. Our outlook for the S&P 500 is to reach 7500 by year-end and 10,000-13,000 by 2029-2030. It’s important for investors to remember their long-term goals and remain patient.
Market Commentary - March 30, 2026
March Madness Hits: The Persian Gulf Continues To Rattle The Markets
Geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf have pushed oil prices sharply higher, triggering another spike in market volatility and renewed inflation concerns. The risk is that volatility will continue until more certainty over the Iran conflict can get priced into the markets. In the absence of such clarity, equity markets will most likely continue to correct. It is also worth noting that this pattern is not unusual in midterm election years, when the S&P 500 has historically experienced corrections in the 15%–20% range. Interest rates may also stay under pressure due to concerns about rising inflation and the possibility of the Federal Reserve (Fed) not cutting interest rates this year. In fact, in some corners, there’s speculation that the Fed could begin to raise rates. That is not a risk that we see at this time.
Market Commentary - March 3, 2026
Market Insights: Markets & the Iranian Conflict
After the U.S. and Israeli conducted joint military strikes on Iran, Sanctuary Wealth Chief Investment Strategist Mary Ann Bartels emphasizes why it is important for investors to remain patient despite unrest in the Middle East. Mary Ann points out that price of crude oil is expected to remain within a range that still allows the economy, the consumer and earnings to remain strong. She stresses that internal market indicators suggest we remain in a U.S. secular bull market. “We are of the belief that what is happening with the military event in Iran is temporary and is not going to derail the bull market,” she said.
Uncategorized - February 23, 2026
The Supreme Court Rules Against Trump’s Tariffs
In a highly anticipated ruling last Friday morning, the Supreme Court (SCOTUS) ruled 6-3 that President Trump overstepped his authority by using a 1977 emergency powers law (IEEPA) to impose broad global tariffs on imports from nearly every country. SCOTUS said tariffs are basically taxes, and in normal circumstances, only Congress has the authority to impose them, not the president acting alone. The Court’s decision knocks out most of the wide-reaching tariffs from 2025, but leaves other specific ones in place (such as those on steel and aluminum, for security reasons or unfair practices from China). With SCOTUS’ announcement coming out just days ahead of President Trump's State of the Union speech, set for tomorrow night (Tuesday), he hit back quickly. In a press conference on Friday, Trump called the ruling "deeply disappointing" and announced a new temporary 10% tariff on imports from almost everywhere (using a different old trade law, Section 122, which lasts up to 150 days). Then on Saturday, Trump upped the new tariff to 15%. For many countries, even the 15% is lower than the previous rates on their imports, so it's short-term relief. The exception is China, where existing tough tariffs stay unchanged and could even rise. Now the big headline – and headache – is refunds. The government collected $140 billion to $200 billion from the now-illegal tariffs. Businesses may be fighting in court for years to get money back, creating uncertainty surrounding the refunds, international trade, and the federal deficit, which would rise if the government must refund the tariffs it collected. Even so, markets liked the SCOTUS announcement overall. Stocks rose modestly on Friday because the decision dials back some extreme trade-war risks and eases fears of big price hikes or profit hits for companies. Still, the new 15% blanket tariff adds some costs, and more twists could come, so keep an eye open for further developments.